With two weeks left before the midterms, the early vote is already telling a story about where attention is concentrated. An Associated Press analysis of data through Tuesday, October 20, found early voting in Texas up 74% from the same point in 2022, more than double in Kansas, and up more than 30% in Maine, North Carolina and Ohio. Nationally, AP counted more than 13 million mail and early in-person ballots, against about 9 million at this stage four years ago.

The numbers keep climbing. The University of Florida Election Lab tracker put the total at about 14.3 million on Wednesday, roughly 9.1 million by mail and 5.2 million in person, Spectrum News reported. In-person early voting opened Tuesday in Hawaii, Louisiana, Missouri, Utah and Wisconsin, and Michigan and New York start on Saturday.

Texas stands out because its in-person window only opened Monday. AP said ballots cast there are near 1 million, up from about 550,000 at the same stage in 2022, and Axios reported Dallas County logged a record 76,079 in-person votes on opening day. In Ohio, where AdImpact projects nearly $500 million in total Senate-race spending, AP counted about 156,000 more ballots than in 2022, though it noted the state has since ended its grace period for mail ballots, which pushes returns earlier.

The surge is not uniform. AP found Michigan and Georgia high in raw totals but similar to 2022, when both set midterm records. Axios, using UF data, said Georgia's 1 million-plus ballots already equal 25.9% of its 2022 turnout and Virginia's 770,916 equal 25.5%.

Part of the jump is structural, not just enthusiasm. AP said several states have expanded early voting or publish more data than in 2022, and states set their own schedules, so low shares in places like Oregon or Connecticut, per Axios, do not necessarily mean lagging participation. Early voters also tend to be more politically engaged than average, which Axios notes makes the data an unreliable predictor of final results.

Why it matters

For anyone running turnout operations, the early vote changes the calendar. Every banked ballot narrows the universe of voters still to contact, and the big increases AP found are in states with the most contested Senate races, where outreach is heaviest. The caution is just as important: expanded voting windows, new reporting and the shift of reliable voters to early ballots can inflate comparisons with 2022, so these figures show who has voted so far, not how the races will end.

Sources

• Associated Press (via KSAT) — "Many states deciding control of the Senate are seeing a big boost in early voting, AP analysis shows" (Joey Cappelletti, Mike Catalini, Simran Parwani) — 2026-10-21
• Associated Press — "Voter turnout is soaring in some key states, AP analysis shows" — 2026-10-21
• Spectrum News — "More than 14 million Americans have already voted ahead of midterms" (Angi Gonzalez) — 2026-10-21
• Axios — "Where midterms early voting is surging" (David Adkins, Herb Scribner) — 2026-10-20
• University of Florida Election Lab — "2026 Early Voting" tracker — updated 2026-10-22

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