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Early Voting Surges in Senate Battlegrounds, but the Electorate So Far Skews Toward the Most Reliable Voters

October 23, 2026 · Category: Field & Elections

Two weeks out from the Nov. 3 midterms, the early vote is running well ahead of the last midterm cycle in many of the states expected to decide control of the U.S. Senate, according to an Associated Press analysis published Thursday. Nationally, more than 18 million Americans had cast ballots by mail or in person as of Thursday morning, according to the University of Florida's Election Lab, as cited by ABC News.

Georgia is the clearest example. Its first day of in-person early voting drew 190,394 ballots, a record, and by 8 a.m. Thursday the state's tracker showed 1,330,455 ballots cast, counting in-person votes and accepted mail ballots, USA Today reported. In Texas, Harris County also set records, yet county data showed 88% of registered voters, more than 2.4 million people, still had not voted, according to ABC13 Houston.

That gap is the more useful number for anyone working turnout. ABC News' voter-file analysis found the early electorate is dominated by habitual voters. In Georgia, 71% of ballots cast as of Oct. 19 came from people who voted in all four recent general elections, up from 63% at the same stage in 2024. In Michigan, 90% of the roughly 670,000 early voters had voted in at least three of the last four general elections, and only 1.3% were new or newly returning voters.

In other words, a big early number can partly reflect reliable voters banking their ballots sooner, rather than an expanded electorate. ABC found Democrats and modeled Democrats making up a larger share of early ballots than in 2024 in most states it examined, but it cautioned that the figures say nothing about voters who usually wait. Republicans have historically been more likely to vote on Election Day, and a Pew analysis cited by ABC found that 2024's total vote split fairly evenly among early in-person, mail and Election Day ballots.

The practical implication is that the remaining two weeks are about the low-propensity voter. Both parties now know which of their supporters have already voted, which lets campaigns drop them from contact lists and concentrate door knocks, calls and texts on people who haven't. Whether that late push lands will matter more than today's headline totals.

Why it matters

Record early turnout is real, but most ballots so far come from the most dependable voters. The outcome in close states will hinge on who turns out late, which makes the final two weeks of voter contact unusually decisive.

Sources

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